Africa’s moment

My thoughts on Africa in the emerging multipolar world were published in the Ideas Letter yesterday.

Various global powers are competing for influence on the continent. This shift is driven by the decline of Western influence, particularly from the US, and the rise of new players like China, Russia, and Turkey.

The key players and interests are:

- China: Expanding its Belt and Road Initiative, securing critical raw resources, and developing infrastructure to sell renewable energy and military technology.

- Russia: Seeking a formal base and port on the Red Sea, supporting opposing sides in Sudan’s civil war, and gaining favour in Mali with an 84% approval rating.

- Turkey: Pursuing a hard-nosed geopolitical agenda, increasing trade from $3 billion to $32 billion, and supplying arms to various African countries.

- The US and allies: Trying to maintain influence through aid and partnerships but facing criticism for conditional support and backing autocrats.

But there are challenges (which means there are opportunities). Africa’s artificial borders, imposed by colonial powers, create internal divisions and rivalries. This is the main geographical challenge most countries on the continent will face.

Multipolarity risks exacerbating these tensions but also offers opportunities for African countries to assert agency and negotiate better partnerships. If properly managed, regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area could help overcome the historical legacies of colonialism and neocolonialism.

African countries must navigate this complex landscape strategically and understand that, in reality, no one likes us or hates us. Like serious people, we must learn to identify and prioritise our interests and aspirations ruthlessly.

Forging beneficial partnerships and regional cooperation can help Africa avoid repeating patterns of exploitation and dependency. Our continent’s future depends on our ability to broker common positions, manage internal divisions, and assert autonomy in the face of competing global interests.