Biden is wicked
In all honesty, after my OpEd for Al Jazeera, I’ve tried to avoid talking about this war. Of course, I’ve followed it keenly because of my deep interest in geopolitics, but I have two reasons for having avoided voicing (or in many cases even having) an opinion on the war; first, when you cut through the noise, at its heart, the war is about geopolitics and a great power struggle. My concern is where it affects Africa, such as food prices, but I hold the firm view that neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians nor the West care about Africa or Africans, so why should I spend hours on end thinking about their squabbles?
My second concern is that between the Western behaviour in this war and the Western behaviour concerning Israel’s war in Gaza (and now Lebanon), an axe is being taken to the post-World War II international order. That worries me greatly.
You see, as an African, the post-WW2 order, imperfections and all has been the most benevolent order for weak states such as my country, Nigeria. It gave us a chance to climb out of the swamp we have been in (with colonial and neo-colonial help of course). That we did not climb out of the morass is another story entirely, but you can’t deny that others (Botswana? Singapore? Vietnam?) took the opportunity. In many ways, it’s on us that we did not, but as I said, that’s a whole long discussion for another day.
Now, why am I so concerned about Ukraine again?
Yesterday’s decision by Joe Biden to authorise the use of missiles deep into Russia is nothing short of spiteful. He did it to spite his successor, Donald Trump. A few months ago, Biden came under pressure to authorise these deep strikes. The Russians reacted badly to the prospect, and Biden demurred. One of the reasons given then was that they wanted to avoid a possible nuclear crisis. What materially changed between June and today? The election of Donald Trump, who has no real love for the Ukrainians and who would probably end the war. This escalation is nuclear brinkmanship and was done in very bad faith.
Just a few days ago, a retired US General, Mark Kimmit, told the Wall Street Journal that deep strikes by Ukraine into Russia would not materially change the outcome on the battlefield for several reasons, among which he stressed Ukraine’s population decline. I believe that analysis, and I’m sure that Biden has access to that kind of analysis. Heck, for it to be on the WSJ by a retired US Army General, it is likely to be the prevailing thinking in the Pentagon. That would be a good reason why Biden declined a few months ago. Again, what has changed?
He is just doing this, and putting all of us at risk, to spite Trump, not because he gives a god-damn about the Ukrainians.