Some interesting graphs

As compared to last week, this week has been relatively busy, hence no real time to write. However, the week has come to an end, and otito diri Chukwu.

As y’all know, I work in an organisation that deals with data, and one brief we are working on, is trying to project where Nigeria will be in another fifty years. If you are one of those who is always looking for good news, you can stop reading right now. The truth, is ugly.

entr’acte

So, if you’re one of those who likes your meals unflavoured, here it is.

A few years ago, I wrote something for Africa is a Country, on Nigeria’s baby boom. Yes, Nigeria’s population is rising, and it’s rising faster than that of the entire continent of Europe. In the years since I wrote that, we’ve actually accelerated.

Nigeria’s population since 1960. Source — office research

Now, a rising population is not necessarily a bad thing, especially if the government is willing to spend on that rising population abi? Our government has been throwing more money at the problem.

Nigeria’s budget since 1997. Previous budgets are covered under client NDA, so can’t do that here. Source — office research.

Looking at both graphs, focus on 1997 to date for the population graph, on the surface, it appears that on a certain level, our expenditure is keeping up with population growth. After all, our 2017 budget is the highest ever isn’t it?

But let’s throw in a curve ball…

Nigeria’s exchange rate since 1997; official and parallel. Source — office research

The curve ball that has been thrown in is the exchange rate. What we did was to take the exchange rate on March 31 for each year that the brief provided. For comparison, we also found the exchange rate for each day the budget was announced. Not very pleasant work. Anyway, March 31 was a decent compromise, and we went as far back as the brief demanded. Client won’t be too happy if I publicly go beyond 1997, so that’s what you get, sorry. Next image please…

Nigeria’s budget in dollar terms since 1997, official and parallel. Source — office research.

I’m sure by now you get the point. Notice that our budget is not rising. As a matter of fact, the budget only had a sustained, sharp increase between 2005 and 2008. Since 2013, it’s been a steady decline, and the argument can be made that we are headed back to our “default setting”.

So, when they tell you that budget 2017 is the highest ever, they aren’t exactly being truthful.

What is more important though, more interesting, and really scary, is if we juxtapose these figures, with inflation, population growth, and GDP.

We have plotted those graphs, I wish I could share them, but I can’t. Property of a client.