The Perfect Storm: Fragmentation, Weak Governance, and Geopolitics in Africa

The video is about 20 minutes long, so I’m summarising the content below…

Africa is facing an unprecedented surge in conflicts driven by ethnic fragmentation, weak governance, and the proliferation of small arms. Nigeria, for instance, is grappling with widespread violence and displacement fueled by the spread of small arms, which has exacerbated communal clashes, kidnappings, and ethnic tensions. The Niger Delta remains unstable despite a 2009 amnesty program, while Northern Nigeria faces rising criminality due to corruption, unemployment, and ungoverned spaces. In the Northeast, Boko Haram exploits porous borders and weak governance, contributing to mass displacement and human rights violations.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is another hotspot, with the M23 rebel group capturing Goma and Rwanda openly supporting the rebels. The conflict is rooted in ethnic rivalries and resource exploitation, particularly in the eastern DRC, where over 200 ethnic groups coexist uneasily. Similar patterns of ethnic fragmentation and resource-driven conflict are seen across Africa, including in South Sudan and Ethiopia, where tribal rivalries have fueled civil wars and displacement.

The Sahel region has become a global epicentre for jihadism, with groups like al Qaeda and ISIS exploiting weak governance and ethnic divisions. The 2011 NATO intervention in Libya, which led to the collapse of the Libyan state, has had far-reaching consequences, including the spread of weapons and extremist ideologies across the Sahel. This has intensified conflicts in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, where jihadist groups now control significant territories.

The human toll is staggering, with 32.5 million Africans displaced, nearly half of the world’s internally displaced population. Women and children face heightened risks of sexual violence and hunger, particularly in regions like eastern DRC and Sudan, where famine has been confirmed. Despite the scale of suffering, global attention and humanitarian funding have waned, with Western powers reducing their engagement in Africa. The U.S., traditionally a key humanitarian donor, has shifted its focus, leaving a vacuum that other powers like Russia, China, and regional actors have filled, often exacerbating conflicts for strategic or economic gain.

The withdrawal of Western support, particularly from the U.S., risks deepening Africa’s crises. Weak governance, ethnic divisions, and historical legacies of colonialism make many African states ill-equipped to manage the resulting power vacuum. While some argue that reduced Western involvement could foster self-reliance, the immediate consequences will likely be increased human suffering, intensified conflicts, and further displacement. For Africa to achieve stability, domestic reforms and sustained international cooperation and investment will be required. Without these efforts, the continent risks plunging into further chaos, with devastating consequences for its people.